California is on the verge of getting truck makers to produce electric trucks – it’s time

Originally posted on the blog of Union of concerned scientists.
by Jimmy O’Dea, Senior Vehicle Analyst

On April 28, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released the final project of the Advanced Clean Trucks standard, a policy that will require truck manufacturers to manufacture electric trucks. The publication of the proposal kicks off a 30-day public comment period leading up to the Council vote on June 25-26.

Under this Politics, a given percentage of truck manufacturers’ sales in California must be battery electric or fuel cell electric vehicles as of model year 2024. The policy applies to truck manufacturers who sell more than 500 trucks per year in the state. Ten companies currently meet this threshold (brands in brackets): Daimler (Freightliner, Thomas Built Buses, Western Star), Paccar (Kenworth, Peterbilt), Navistar (International, IC Bus), Ford, GM (Chevrolet, GMC), Fiat Chrysler (Dodge), Nissan, Isuzu, Toyota (Hino) and Volvo Group.

Today’s proposal follows a previous version which was presented to the Board last December and generated significant repression of the public (including UCS) and CARB board members for not being strong enough. In response, CARB staff made three changes to strengthen the proposal (marked in red below).

First, sales targets have been increased in all vehicle classes. Second, sales targets increase until 2035 instead of flattening in 2030. Third, Class 2b pickup trucks (eg Ford F-250) are included in the standard in 2024 rather than being exempted until. ‘in 2027. * As a result, the latest proposal doubles the number of electric trucks produced by the previous version until 2035.

Based on CARB’s most recent projections for annual truck sales, UCS analysis indicates that the proposal will require the sale of 4,000 electric trucks in 2024 out of approximately 75,000 total sales. The proposal will result in approximately 100,000 and 300,000 electric trucks on California roads in 2030 and 2035, respectively, out of approximately 1.8 million and 1.9 million total trucks expected for those years.

For reference, 2,700 electric trucks already received state funding last month. ** And a recent order for Amazon will put at least 10,000 electric delivery trucks into service (nationwide) by 2022 and 100,000 by 2030.

300,000 electric trucks in California still won’t be enough

The new proposal is a big step in the right direction and perhaps the most important policy for electric trucks to date. Even our colleagues in China, a country with the largest deployment of electric trucks and buses, see what CARB does next.

But the figures above show that this policy alone will not shift the heavy-duty sector from a diesel-powered sector to one powered by batteries and hydrogen. It will take further steps to eliminate the burden of pollution from trucks and their contribution to climate change.

One action CARB should take when it votes on the Advanced Clean Trucks standard in June is to formally commit to deadlines for the transition to electric trucks in California. The initial timelines were set in a recent workshop and are critical to sending a clear signal that most, if not all, of the state’s trucks will be electric over the next 20 years.

How does COVID-19 affect this proposition?

Unfortunately, but perhaps unsurprisingly, opponents of electric vehicles are trying to use the current health and economic crisis to delay the Advanced Clean Trucks proposal. UCS represents more than 60 community, health, scientific and environmental groups (here, here); health experts; and state legislators on the importance of moving forward with this standard and other air quality policies in development.

Why? Although air pollution is currently reduced in many – but certainly not all communities – due to stay-at-home orders, this is a temporary effect. The chronic impacts of pollution, which disproportionate communities of color and low-income communities remain burdens. And the longest residence time greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere compared to air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and particulates, means short term the reductions in emissions will be even less noticeable from a climatic point of view.

Trucks and buses disproportionately to contribute air pollution and global warming emissions from the transport sector. Although they represent 10 percent of vehicles, heavy goods vehicles contribute 45 percent of NOX, 57 percent of direct PM2.5, and 28 percent of global warming emissions from highway sources in the United States. Battery-powered electric trucks have no tailpipe emissions and, when charged on the US mid-grid (2016), have 44 to 79 percent Reduced lifecycle global warming emissions compared to diesel, depending on vehicle application (eg, long haul semi-trailer versus local delivery truck).

The Advanced Clean Trucks standard has been under development for november 2016 and will not take effect until model year 2024, which is seven years from start to implementation. While regulatory development is inherently long, the seven-year timeline represents a significant delay from original plans. In California State implementation plan to meet federal air quality standards, a policy for electric trucks was to be passed in 2018 and begin Implementation in 2020.

Until the vote in June, we will continue to show the important role that electric trucks can play in protecting public health and reducing the climate impacts of heavy vehicles. Tell CARB why you are supporting action on electric trucks here.

Estimated Electric Truck Sales

The number of electric trucks that the Advanced Clean Trucks standard will achieve depends on the manufacturers total truck sales. During the public workshop process, the Engine Manufacturers Association (EMA) provided a estimate Class 2b-8 vehicle sales in California, totaling 102,000 vehicles per year. CARB initially reported similar annual sales, but in the Statement of Initial Reasons (ISOR) considered at the Council hearing last December, CARB included revised estimates totaling significantly lower sales: 74,000 vehicles per year. CARB believes the EMA’s highest estimate represented a period of unusually high sales.

Analysis (below) by UCS shows estimates of electric truck sales and cumulative populations based on annual sales in CARB’s ISOR. The new Advanced Clean Trucks proposal (in red) results in 100,000 electric trucks in 2030 and 300,000 in 2035, compared to 60,000 and 150,000, respectively, in the December 2019 proposal, crossed out. ***

Note that the ISOR includes an annual growth of around 1% in sales. The percentage of electric trucks on the road was estimated using a class 2b-8 population derived from CARB EMFAC model, excluding motor homes, city buses, coaches and trucks registered out of state, which are not subject to the Advanced Clean Trucks standard (electric school bus sales count). By 2024, the model estimates that there will be 1.7 million trucks on the road with these filters applied (1.9 million trucks in total). The same growth rate of approximately 1% in annual sales was applied to the total population of Class 2b-8 vehicles.

For comparison, using the EMA’s annual vehicle sales estimate, CARB’s new proposal would translate to 130,000 trucks in 2030 and 410,000 in 2035, illustrating the effect of increased annual sales. vehicles.

* Class 7-8 tractors were initially excluded from any electric truck sales target, but after the public receded, they were included in the December 2019 proposal.

** 500 other zero emission transit buses and coaches also received state funding, but these vehicle classes are not subject to the Advanced Clean Trucks standard.

*** Class 2b pickup trucks account for 67 percent of annual Class 2b-3 sales as estimated by the EMA. This fraction was used to calculate electric truck sales under the previous policy scenario that excluded vans from zero-emission vehicle requirements until 2027.

Image courtesy of BYD

Featured Image: BYD Electric Sanitation Trucks

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